After the recent terrorist attack that rocked the nation, focus once again shifted to our neighbour, who has long been charged with providing sanctuary and support to extremist elements. With India announcing the Indust Water Treaty to be held in abeyance, Pakistan has been left without advance information on river flows, flood forecasts, or drought risks. Concerns regarding water security are raised by this suspension, which jeopardises a rare instance of collaboration between the two adversaries in an area already dealing with climate stress and rising demand.
Pakistan has fostered a narrative that India poses an existential threat to Pakistan by addressing India as a threat to their water supplies. Even though there isn’t any concrete proof that this subject is being used to incite extremism in society, we cannot ignore the propaganda the government is producing to garner support at home and deflect attention from internal problems, such as charges of aiding terrorism, let alone terror recruitment.
While traditional terrorism has frequently been motivated by political, religious, or ideological reasons, a new form of radicalism has emerged in the twenty-first century that is based on ecological desperation, the loss of livelihoods, and the collapse of socioeconomic systems. Is this the rise of Eco-Jihad in the subcontinent, or would become just a tool to further fuel instability? Either way resource scarcity led extremism is eminant in the future.
What is Eco-Jihad? – not to be confused with green or environment moments !!
Eco-Jihad is not an officially recognized academic term but a concept where climate and natural resource stress leading to the creation, and catalization of radicalism in a region. Despite being a relatively recent concept, history is replete with conflicts over control of resources, which are now due to scarcity. The main causes are ecological collapse (such as desertification and deforestation), livelihood instability (such as migration brought on by drought), ethnic and resource-based conflict, and governance gaps caused by state failure.
Climate Stress- A Threat Multiplier for South Asia
Approximately 110 million people in India and 195 million people in Pakistan depend on the Indus waters for their livelihoods, agriculture, and daily needs, around 55 -60 million families. Out of this 300 million people, Pakistan accounts for 61% as of 2025, wchich is approximately 90% of its entire population. The Indus system supports over 80% of Pakistan’s crops and is vital for major cities such as Karachi and Lahore.
According to the academic paper by Gleditsch et al. (2006), there is a significant correlation between civil conflict and climate anomalies, particularly in agrarian economies. In these situations, the climate exacerbates fragility rather than directly causing conflict.
To quantify the above state idea let us take the help of a Weighted Linear Composite Index Framework, which is nothing but a simple yet intuitive form of multivariate risk modeling. As we know the Cross-Border Incidents (CBI) has a direct and positive correlation with the Terror Recruitment Index (TRI) which is denoted by:
CBI=θ⋅TRI⋅(1−SSP) ——- Equation 1
where, State Security Presence (SSP) is Measures military/police deployment efficiency and ranges between 0 to 1, 1 being the highest and 0 being no presence of state security machinaries.
The Terror Recruitment Index (TRI) is represented by the equatiom:
TRI=α(1−W)+β(U)−γ(G)+δ(D) ———– Equation 2
where,
W = Water Availability / Resource Availibility under study
U = Unemployment
G = Government Spending in Social Welfare
D = Natural Disaster
Let us consider ceteris peribus condition where TRI has Water availability as its variable and other indicators remaining constant.
then equation 2 become:
TRI=α(1−W) ——- Equation 3
Substituting equation 3 in equation 1, we get:
CBI=θ⋅[α(1−W)]⋅(1−SSP)
In the resultant equation, it is clear that, Water Availability is a variable while quantifying the Cross Border Incidents, and has a negative effect, i.e.,
| Cross-Border Incidents | Water Availibility |
| Increases | Decreases |
| Decreases | Increases |
Can we reach an Equilibrium between WA & PTI ? Does it really matter?
From now on let the Water Availability in liters per capita per day, Terror Recruitment Index and Predicted terror Incidents be denoted by their respective abbreviations for ease of writing and understanding.
Let us consider two situations, When WA=450 and WA= 150.
| Scenario | Water Availability (WA) | Terror Recruitment Index (TRI) | Predicted Terror Incidents (PTI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 450 L/capita/day | 8 | 43 |
| B | 150 L/capita/day | 14 | 66 |
From A to B, a drop in WA correlates with an increase in PTI, driven by a rise in TRI. This relationship implies a troubling reality: as water becomes scarce, societal stress increases, leading to a fertile ground for radicalization and the rise of extremist networks. These findings suggest that environmental deprivation—especially lack of access to essential resources like water—can act as a force multiplier for terrorism. But the question is, is there any equilibrium possible?
Equilibrium, here in the above graph it is represented by the intersection of WA Curve(blue line) and PTI Curve(purple dotted line), in this context refers to a point where water stress is minimized, radicalization is subdued, and terror-related activities are effectively contained. While striking this ideal balance could be difficult in unstable areas, we must also keep in mind that containing and eliminating terrorism are separate endeavours. Even if there won’t be any more recruiting in the equilibrium, the prevailing extremists will nonetheless win out.
From a theoretical standpoint, an equilibrium exists where:
- The marginal cost of increasing water availability is less than the security cost of rising terrorism.
- Societies are resilient enough to withstand shocks without descending into violence or ideological extremism.
My Thoughts on Climate Extremism
This relationship is not just academic; it has real-world consequences. Evenif we quantify the theories, though, is this equilibrium actually significant? Yes, without a doubt. Global security organisations now acknowledge that resource pressures brought on by climate change, especially water scarcity, are threat multipliers.For both security analysts and policymakers, models that connect WA, TRI, and PTI provide a potent predictive lens. Investing in resource infrastructure, equitable distribution mechanisms, and climate adaptation strategies isn’t just developmental—it is preventative counter-terrorism.
Related Articles:
Climate-Terror Risk Simulator | Creating an Economic Dashboard – PRIYADARSHI KIRTI GOURAV
Terror Recruitment Index – TRI 2.0: An extended version – PRIYADARSHI KIRTI GOURAV
Also Read:
Environmental Shift and Terrorism: How climate change fuels terrorism in Africa – Modern Diplomacy
